Focus on Guinea as a growing market
Guinea’s recent macroeconomic performance revealed a consistent growth trajectory, with an estimated real GDP rise of 4.8% in 2022, primarily propelled by the mining sector. Despite sociopolitical challenges, the nation proved resilient against external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Inflation experienced a slight decline to 12.2% in 2022, with some moderation attributable to the appreciation of the Guinean franc. While the budget deficit contracted to an estimated 1.3% of GDP in 2022 from 1.7% in 2021 due to augmented revenues from mining, it faced constraints due to escalated electricity subsidies. Public debt declined to 35.5% of GDP in 2022 from 40.4% in 2021, with moderate risk in external over indebtedness.
Looking ahead, Guinea is anticipated to sustain its growth momentum, with a projected real GDP expansion of 5.5% in 2023 and 5.6% in 2024.
This growth will be driven by augmented mining production, energy accessibility and increased infrastructure investments. Inflation rates are expected to decline to 11.2% in 2023 and further to 9.9% in 2024, attributed to reduced tensions from geopolitical events and enhanced supply chains. Challenges, including potential sociopolitical tensions, insufficient resource mobilisation and economic recovery in non-extractive sectors, could however pose obstacles.
Guinea’s economic growth, projected at 5.1% in 2023 and 5.5% in 2024, is another positive indicator.
Despite global credit scarcity and a rise in interest rates, we’ve seen increased appetite on Guinea’s country risk with more infrastructure financing from investors. Axendo is poised to be a significant partner in the Guinean market after being awarded projects in sectors including healthcare and infrastructure.
- Marieme Niang Camara
- Managing Director, Africa